Once again the General Election is upon us. At the last election (2005), I was an enthusiatic blogger; in the current one, I am less so. So here are some observations on the election due in a few weeks.
First the prediction: Polling has become remarkeably prescient in recent years; the message they are giving in the current election is mixed. The most likely outcome is a hung Parliament, with Labour being the largest party. The reason for this is partly systemic - the way the constituency system works, as at present, favours Labour. You could form a government here without a moral majority.
What would I like to see, not that it matters? I think I would prefer Labour returned, albeit with a chastened majority and a party humbled by the loss of some prominent seats.
Locally, in the newly restructured constituency of Hall Green, even the retiring MP for Selly Oak, Dr Lynne Jones, has called on people to vote for Salma Yaqoob, the Respect candidate. So much for the calibre of the current MP, Roger Godsiff, who is seeking re-election. At the last election, (when it was the Sparkbrook constituency) Salma Yaqoob came an impressive second and was close to creating a major upset for Labour locally.
In the current election, I think the Respect vote will hold, but victory seems more unlikely. The new Hall Green constituency includes the largely middle class, and white, ward of Hall Green. Any anti-Labour feeling there is more likely to transfer to the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. With the anti-Labour vote thus divided, Labour will win again, even if their candidate does not deserve to win.
