Democracy in the Middle East

Do Bush and Blair really want democracy in the Middle East? You would have to be naïve, or more Blairite than Blair, to believe so. In Palestine, democracy delivered Hamas. In various Gulf states, limited exercises in democracy have seen religious parties victorious. Then there is Iraq, meant to be a beacon of democracy that was to shine in the region, it’s powerful rays throwing asunder neighbouring tyrannies and alighting a new phase of freedom. Alas there elections have only accentuated sectarian divisions.

What Bush and Blair really want are compliant tyrannies willing and happy to do the West’s bidding. I have seen no convincing argument against this view. Every word these leaders utter confirms this. How else can you explain the differential treatment of Palestine and Lebanon. In the latter, there is a precariously balanced (pro-Western) government from which the largest minority has withdrawn. In the former, the governing (independent-minded) party won an outright victory barely a year ago. Which of these two is the strongest candidate for a re-election? Blair and Bush’s choice isn’t the one based on what logic and rationality would suggest.

Christmas

Once again this year there is debate about how 'do-gooders' are eroding the spirit of Christmas by banning any reference to religion or the religious character of Christmas. The Telegraph reading- and writing- types who are up in arms are quite right. They are also generous enough to realise that it is not the potential recipients of 'do-goodery', the minorities, who are demanding the removal of any reference to Christmas. Quite the contrary- minorities are conscious that these ridiculous gestures only embolden the far right.

A bigger debate needs to be had about the commercialisation of Christmas. Even in the absence of 'do-goodery', Christmas is losing it's religious and spiritual character to the forces of materialism. About this the Telegraph reading and writing types say much less.

Season's greetings!

Iraq

The Iraq Study Group's report, which has dominated the news this week, is an irrelevance. What matters are the ground realities in Iraq and those look irretrievable. Iraq is heading towards disintegration along ethnic and sectarian lines. Much has been made of Iraq's 'democratically elected government'. Even if an election, under the watchful eye of an invading army, can be free and fair, the result hasn't done much to inculcate democratic values and culture. It merely fortified sectarianism.

On another note, Kofi Anan was condemned by some for saying things were now worse than under Saddam. Such visceral condemnation is totally unreasonable. Iraq is an extremely dangerous place to be in. Hundreds of people are being killed every month. There is no law and order. You literally have to worry sick about any family members who need to venture significantly away from home.

Under Saddam, you were not killed while out shopping. You were not killed for turning up to work. There should be no embarrassment in admitting that things were better under Saddam. A corollary of suggesting otherwise is that people living in other tyrannies, whether pro-Western like Saudi, or decidedly anti-Western like Iran, would be better off blowing each other up than they are now. It doesn't make sense.

Veil wars

Jack Straw’s comments about the veil are interesting not for what they say about the subject of the veil, but what may have motivated them. Straw is an extremely intelligent politician who does not make blunders. His every sentence is calculated, lucid and logical.

My own guess is that he is positioning himself for a shot at leadership. Blair’s days are numbered- and now is the time for positioning. So why the veil? Some time ago, there was speculation that he may have been demoted because certain US Neocons were alarmed by his dependence on Muslims. What better way for a revival than to engage in some Muslim-bashing?

As for the substance of the attack on the veil, there is some merit in it. He is right to say that effective communication and bridge-building depends on being able to see the other person. Talking to a person covered in black, with even the eyes scarcely visible, can be uncomfortable. But then so can many other things, including images of scantily clad women staring at us from billboards.

A more alarming development, which politicians should ponder, is why the use of the veil and other religious symbols- e.g. long bushy beards- has increased. It has increased most among young people, born and bred here. The idea that religious compulsion is behind the trend does not pass muster. When the parents and grandparents of these young people arrived in 50s and 60s, they did not go out of their way to make a religious statement. The women mostly wore colourful, silky headscarves rather than the black niqab.

Magic!

Among Mirpuris belief in magic, and its ability to visit ill on people, is rife. It is often used as an explanation for a range of problems, from mental health to marriage/ love problems. In my opinion, those who believe most strongly in magic often have undiagnosed emotional and/or mental problems.

There is also an ‘industry’ devoted to undoing the affects of magic. You can read the adverts placed in the minority press by people who offer such services. These include claims of stubborn lovers falling to your feet or being able to conceive (presumably those who wish you ill can, by their magic, prevent you from procreating). I am not sure what exactly ‘therapy’ to undo the affects of magic comprises, though I know amulets are often worn to cast away evil spirits.

It is easy to dismiss such beliefs as unscientific and irrational, which they undoubtedly are. However, when they form an important part of people’s interpretive baggage, it is not so easy to be dismissive. That is why many mental health practitioners try to understand and work with such beliefs.

When will the Geoffrey Howe moment come for Blair?

Those with an interest in politics will remember when Geoffrey Howe stood in Parliament and asked Tory MPs to reassess their loyalties. The speech wasn’t the beginning of the end, but it certainly was the decisive push which led to Thatcher’s resignation. So will Blair have a Howe moment? With a load of junior resignations announced today, that moment could be nigh.

For this to happen, there needs to be someone of sufficient authority to do the pushing. Brown is an obvious candidate, but with every day he delays the move, the move associated with Blairism he becomes. He tends to make is point by his silences. His silence on the Lebanon crisis is notable. Yet this approach, of remaining silent on issues that are purely Blair’s personal decisions, cannot last for long. People are entitled to ask what he did to stop Blair.

The other candidate of sufficient authority and independence of thought is Straw. He has an added motive, which is his demotion to the post of Leader of the House after the being Foreign Secretary. Already he has demonstrated his independence by saying things about the Lebanon crisis that Blair would not endorse. However, the longer he remains in the backwater, the more his authority lessens.

Can a computer programme cure depression?

A computer based cognitive-behavioural therapy programme is being trialled in the north of England for the treatment of depression. If the results are positive, then this could be a major breakthrough in getting people off drugs. With drugs, even if they cure or minimise the symptoms, they have other undesirable side-effects.

It will be interesting to see the results of the trial. In my opinion, anything that interests and occupies the mind can have a therapeutic effect for treating mild depression. I often feel symptoms that can certainly be described as mild depression. Yet I feel a lot better after an interesting read or by listening to music or even aimlessly surfing the net. We need to unburden ourselves by doing things that make us feel relaxed, that we can do for their own sake rather than as instruments for achieving other ends.

That’s partly why I am sceptical about the computer programme. It requires discipline, sitting behind a computer and rigidly- and nervously- following the instructions. It requires focusing on the problems. In my opinion, diversionary tactics work the best.

Good arranged marriage

Every so often, I like to return to the knotty subject of arranged marriage, triggered in most cases by experiences and examples of how it should not work. For arranged marriage is a complicated thing. In theory, it is a good thing- or at least no worse than any other way of finding a life partner. In practice, it very often means arranged in every sense, so that the marrying parties have no say at all. It is simply assumed that they are happy. The question of how they feel simply does not arise. That surely cannot be right. Yet this is how it was done in the past and continues to be done in many cases at present.

So what is ‘good’ arranged marriage, or will we be like the socialists who continued to insist that socialism was a good thing, but that the counter examples given by critics were not cases of ‘real’ socialism? I think it need not be like that. So I propose the following definition of good arranged marriage. I would welcome alternatives or comments:

Arranged marriage is when parents introduce a child, who has explicitly stated their readiness for marriage, to a potential marriage partner and if marriage follows from the introduction, it does so as a result of the explicit consent of both parties. Nothing is implicit.

'War on terror’

It is well known that the war on terror has given an excuse to many unsavoury regimes to suppress those with legitimate grievances. Now, according to the Mirror last Friday, the war on terror has afforded an opportunity of another sort. According to the paper, a London cop was caught surreptitiously filming up women’s skirts. When caught, the cop claimed he was filming as part of an anti-terror operation. The images stored on his camera told a different story. I wonder what will come next as part of the war on terror?

Middle East woes

I don’t like writing blog entries about the Middle East. This is partly because the picture there is so depressing and partly because so much is written about the area that what I have to say would add absolutely nothing.

Nevertheless, I would like to make several points. The first concerns Blair’s unflinching support for Bush, not a millimetre hither or thither. There is a lot of spin and humbug in politics, yet in the current Lebanon crisis there is not even the pretence of impartiality. There is unflinching support for Israel. Not even call for proportion. What signal does this send to moderates, who the West is so keen to cultivate?

The ease with which Israel has been able to ride roughshod over Lebanon sends another powerful signal to nations in the region and elsewhere. Arm yourself or perish! Weakness invites aggression.

Finally, there is the nauseating suggestion that this is good for Lebanon. Let me be clear: it is not in any nation’s interest to have an armed group within its borders. But the idea that killing hundreds of Lebanese civilians in retaliation for the kidnap of two soldiers is good for Lebanon beggars belief.

Richer areas at risk of disease

Children living in richer areas are at higher risk of getting cancer, according to a study by scientists. (See the BBC). I have a solution for this risk. The drive to abolish poverty should be stopped. The rich should be made poorer, perhaps through higher taxation. To avoid any of the extra revenues being spent on poverty reduction, they should be ring-fenced for specific purposes, such as for building overcrowded accommodation to house the rich when they can no longer afford to stay in their mansions.

Management 'training'

I was recently given the chance to attend an all-day ‘course’ aimed at managers. It was run by a consultant, who no doubt charged a handsome fee. Because some of the managers couldn’t make it, it was opened up to other employees, as the consultant would charge his full fee anyway. The course was entitled ‘Managing change’.

And what a useless exercise it was. It began with a role play game. I forget what the game was or what management wisdom it was meant to elucidate. All I remember is that it was a good laugh and some of the commentary on our performance was overly pedantic.

After that, the whole day was an utter waste of time. The well-remunerated management consultants do no more than present common sense, albeit nicely dressed. Sometimes they do not even do that. Rather, they ask some commonsense questions and the participants, in true interactive fashion, supply the commonsense answers. This method of bringing to the surface what we already know does have a history, of course, as it was how Socrates discussed philosophical issues with his students. But that is beside the point.

Work life

Over the weekend I met someone, after many years, who told me that he works in a small/mid-sized firm. He spoke about work problems. He referred to the fact that he was taken on as a health and safety expert, but was doing work well out of his remit and job description. Because of the size of the firm, everyone was expected to ‘help out’, no matter what the task. He also spoke about a culture of suspicion, caused in part by the fact that all contracts of employment were individually negotiated, so that people did not have a clue about how much others were earning.

What I found very interesting is the therapeutic terms, characteristic of our times, in which the conversation was framed. He felt ‘depressed’ that he was doing routine work that he was not taken on to do. He was ‘worried’ about what others, earning less than him, might think. He was not sure how long he could ‘hack’ it. He felt ‘deskilled’ and ‘de-motivated’.

This, I thought, is the flexible labour market, so praised by politicians, in action. In the not too distant past, all the problems he referred to could have been dealt with through a trade union and collective endeavour. Working conditions, pay, contracts of employment- these would all fall under the role of trade unions. Now, the trade unions are much weakened and individuals are expected to deal with problems themselves. It is not surprising that the problems are framed in therapeutic terms.

Last word on the Azad Kashmiri elections

My final entry about the elections in Azad Kashmir. The Muslim Conference party has emerged as the largest party and with some minor horse trading, will be able to form a government quite comfortably. This is hardly surprising, when a conspiracy to break up the People’s Party was cooked up by the real power, which is Pakistan. They succeeded, and the pro-Pakistani establishment party will continue to ‘rule’.

The election has also decoupled merit and ability from politics (if there ever was a link). What is clear is that the first requirement is money, loads of it, to be able to buy off possible opponents and holders of vote banks. There, voting is hardly an individual act. Extended families vote the same people. The more united a wider ‘biradri’ is, the more worth it is to grease the palms of their leading members. I am not saying that meritocracy is perfect- indeed it can be quite exclusive, creating a meritocratic elite. . However it is a worthier standard compared to money and the ability to bribe.

Public participation in decision making...

My work life brings me into contact with issues relating to public involvement and participation in decision making by government. It seems to me that most attempts to engage the public in decision making are nothing more than empty gestures. It’s more about making the public sector feel good about going through the motions of engaging people than about empowering the public. Genuine involvement in decision making requires a redistribution of power.

A genuine attempt to redistribute power and engage the public would begin by transferring greater powers to localities. Turnout at local elections is extremely low, which is a symbol of disengagement. But the solution does not lie in consultations, focus groups and other groups made up of self-selected representatives. The solution lies in transferring more powers to the local level, e.g. the power to raise and vary taxes. It lies in giving local government more power over deciding priorities for health and education. If powers are redistributed in this way, the standing of locally elected councillors would increase and more people would vote. More high calibre candidates would be attracted to stand as councillors.

A genuine strengthening of local democracy is needed, not gimmickry.

Elections in Azad Kashmir....continued

Following on from yesterday’s theme of Azad Kashmiri elections, the news from the Dadyal constituency is that the sitting MP has lost the seat. He had worked tirelessly for the region, with visible signs of development everywhere. Nevertheless, he lost, for the simple reason that he was deselected as his party’s candidate and stood as an independent.

Independents have an uphill task. Unless they have substantial, personal local following, built up over many years, it is difficult for them to compete with political parties. Political parties are more than the individual members who represent them. Even if people are unsure of the party candidate, or have never heard of him, his or her anchorage in a political party means a lot of the marketing needed to win is done: everyone has heard of the parties. With independents, there is a huge task of reaching every nook and cranny of the constituency with a message. They do not have the same advantage as parties, where the message can be centrally delivered.

Here in the UK, there are only a few examples of independent candidates winning in recent years. In most cases, much depended on the standing and charisma of the person concerned. In one case, people were so outraged by the closure a local hospital that they voted in a doctor who was opposed to the closure.

In the absence of extra-ordinary personalities or burning local issues, independents face a struggle.

Elections in Azad Kashmir

Last week I wrote about the election fever in Azad Kashmir. Now the election has come and gone. The situation was dangerously tense right to the last moment and there were reports of violence from various parts of Azad Kashmir, including Dadyal, the area I am most interested in. I have 2 observations about the elections, particularly as a British Kashmiri.

First, it is clear that there was great thirst for information among the British Kashmiri community about the results. DM Digital, a Manchester-based digital channel aimed at the Kashmiri/ Pakistani community tried to fill that gap by arranging a studio discussion and announcing the results as they came in. However, not everyone has access to digital satellite TV. It was poorly organised, with the result being announced only once. It would have been more informative if the results were repeated, perhaps on an onscreen table, every 10 minutes, for the benefit of people who had just tuned in.

Second, there is the phenomena of ‘citizen-reporters’. This was evident from the callers to the DM Digital discussion. People were calling in to say, for example, ‘I’ve just spoken to my nephew and he says candidate x has won’. In many cases the ‘citizen-reporters’ contradicted what was being announced by the channel. Again, this underlines the importance of clear, objective information. The callers were clearly supporters of particular candidates.

Heatwave warning...

The Department of Health’s heat wave warning, at level 3 for the West Midlands, made me think of my visit to Pakistan in the summer of 1999. While I was there, rumour spread through the village that a well known local farm worker had ‘gone mad’ while working in a field. I later learnt that he had actually suffered from heatstroke, with confusion and disorientation being a known side effect. A few days later he was back to work.

I find it funny, however, that in our relatively tame summers, it only requires several days of temperatures to hover over or just below 30 degrees for micro-guidance to be issued on wearing ‘loose fitting clothes’, taking ‘cool showers or baths’ and eating ‘more cold food, particularly salads and fruit’.

All over the world, in hotter climes than ours, people know exactly how to cope with the extremes of weather, without having their hands held by the clerisy.

Election fever in Azad Kashmir

Mirpur is currently in the midst of election fever. If there are any readers interested in the elections, they will be aware that Azad Kashmiri politics have become topsy-turvy. The two party system is no more, after leading members of the opposition People’s Party split to form their own party. The ruling Muslim Conference party is also in disarray, after many sitting ministers were refused tickets to stand in the elections. They have in turn decided to run any way, as independents. Politicians who were formerly sworn enemies have become friends; those who had sworn vows of loyalty have become enemies.

Imagine if the Conservative Party splits into two and members of the Labour cabinet are de-selected as candidates for their constituencies. Then imagine some former Conservative ministers join Labour. To complicate matters further, imagine if some of Labour’s leading lights join the Conservatives. That is basically what has happened in Azad Kashmir.

Which all makes interesting reading and heightens the suspense about what will happen post July 11. But which also underlines the vacuity of politicians, who have very little by of ideas and convictions to offer.

Long term joblessness...

How does long term unemployment affect a person’s character? No doubt there are libraries full of books describing depression, anxiety and loss of self confidence as the consequences of being jobless.

In the case of long term unemployed British Pakistani men in their fifties, I have observed two ways in which character has been shaped by being jobless. First is turn to religion- not in any ominous sense of radicalisation. These are mature men with families, for whom stability is everything. Rather, praying five times a day, in the mosque, provides a sense of discipline, when, in a situation of long term joblessness, it is quite easy to lose all sense of time. What difference does time make if you do not have to worry about when to get up and when to go to bed?

Going to the mosque means you meet other people, which leads to the second way unemployment has affected British Pakistani men- the love of gossiping. You can see men standing on street corners talking about anything from the invasion of Iraq to their children’s marriage problems.

Those who don’t go the mosque and meet other people become introverted and suffer some of the problems generally associated with joblessness. Work is good for us because it provides, among other things, a less emotionally charged place than the family. The problems of joblessness can be lessened if another outlet can be found to meet this need.

Newspaper sellers in Brum

Has any other native Brummy noticed how the newspaper sellers in the city centre have become more vocal and pro-active? Formerly the older men would sit in their booth and occasionally shout "Get your paper". Now the newspaper sellers are younger and rarely inside the booth. Instead they are outside the booth, moving around and shouting regularly. I wonder if this is the result of suggestions by a highly paid business consultant.

Genius of capitalism

World cup fever is everywhere. Visiting a major clothing and trinkets store yesterday, it occurred to me how clever capitalism is at capturing the mood of the moment. It’s not just flags- of various varieties from waving type to the hanging from your upstairs window sort. Everything seemed to have a world cup theme. There were t-shirts, shorts and long sleeve shirts. Objects like cups and suitcases had a world cup theme. Even the staff were exuding world cup with their t-shirts, hats and face paints.

That is the genius of capitalism- to exploit the mood of the moment and then move on. These objects sell at very high cost, often to people who can ill afford them. Those aimed at children rely on pester power to make a killing. In a few weeks time, when the world cup fever is no more, any items not flogged now will be sold at hugely knocked down sale prices.

National traits

Be sceptical when writers and columnists tell you about national traits. Such generalisations are useless. If there is anything distinctive discernible about a nation, it normally affects the elites only. Even elite tastes are now being internationalised. Talk of national traits is outdated, even though it only ever applied to a select few within nations.

Tying the knot- untying tradition

British Mirpuri marriage habits are slowly but surely beginning to change. For a while, it was ‘customary’ to marry first cousins based in Mirpur. Now though this custom has always been fairly common in Mirpur, I believe it increased during the 1980s and 1990s, mainly as a convenient way of avoiding the end of primary immigration. Why do I say this? Because in many cases, where both a male and female first cousin, of similar age, are Mirpur based, the respective families would endeavour to find a suitable partners from the UK, even if they are not first cousins. In other words, the aim of sending ones son or daughter is stronger than the ‘custom’ of cousin marriage.

Now all this is beginning to change. Any minority culture can only remain insulated from the influences of the majority culture for so long. The change is being led by young people themselves, who are demanding a greater a say in who, and indeed if, they marry. Many parents are also beginning to change. Whereas previously the minimum condition was that any potential marriage partner should hail from the Mirpur district and be of the same caste, now any British Pakistani Muslim will do.

There is rumour in the Mirpuri community that the rules on bringing partners over will be tightened, perhaps with age/ language restrictions, or a re-introduction of the dreaded ‘primary purpose’ rule, where the onus was on the parties to a marriage to prove that the primary purpose was marriage and not the chance to enter the UK. It meant many people, in perfectly happy marriages, had to go through years of appeals and re-appeals before their partners could join them.

I am not sure if changing the law is the best way forward. There are cultural and social issues, which change with the times. Already things are beginning to change, even though rules have been relaxed since 1997. Over time, things will have to change completely. It is better that change occurs through cultural evolution, than through the force of the law.

Donkey in the veranda!

The hacienda-style mansions dotting Mirpur mask the hard work and long hours spent in earning the pounds- whether as taxi drivers, factory workers or shop owners. Most of them lie empty, their owners living in overcrowded terraces in England. It has now become a cliché among some critical Mirpuris that the deserted mansions are used only by donkeys seeking shade from the midday heat!

Why do people waste huge amounts on properties they hardly live in? I suspect there are a number of reasons, including competition (my mansion is bigger than yours), lingering belief in the myth of return (even though we have now been in the UK for 50 years and our children and their children were born here) and, probably for some people, investing in a mansion is a convenient tax management/ evasion/ avoidance strategy.

Pilgrimage to Mecca

Congratulations to those who have completed the Haj this year. As a reflection of greater prosperity and the conquest of distance, every year sees the number of people making the journey increase. The Saudis would not be able to cope if they admitted everyone who wanted to make the pilgrimage. Yesterday’s stampede in Mina, which killed more than 350 pilgrims, shows the need for a limit on the number of people admitted every year. I do not think one can criticise the Saudis on this matter. They have done all they can- what else can be done to prevent a disaster from occurring in a sea of humanity, 2.5 million strong, congregated in a very small space for the purpose of casting stones at some pillars. Any solution that does not involve limiting the number of pilgrims would not work.

As the number of those bearing the epithet Haji increases, I cannot but notice how the Haj, and other religious rituals, are becoming devoid of any spiritual content. The Haj should be a cathartic journey, spiritually fulfilling. Yet the evidence I see around me would suggest anything but. Many people who make the journey are totally unprepared for it.

‘Lottery winners’

Non-Mirpuri Pakistanis, struggling to make ends meet, consider Mirpur as a collective lottery winner, because a large proportion of its population are settled in the UK. It is one of the first comments I expect to hear from porters, porters-cum-beggars (how else can I describe 5 people trying to grab my single holdall), just beggars and taxi drivers. They demand payment, or charity, in pounds not rupees. If you protest, you are reminded of your extraordinary good luck and duty to fellow countrymen. On one occasion, an elderly female beggar claimed she was not begging but merely claiming her due from her ‘son’.

The non-Mirpuri Pakistanis see only the conspicuous symbols of wealth, such as the hacienda-style mansions that dot the Mirpur district. They have no idea of the long hours spent as taxi drivers, factory workers or corner shop owners in England!

The British Mirpuri condition…

I want to start a series of blog entries on the condition of British Mirpuris (BM). That is not to suggest that there is anything extraordinary about BM, just that as an insider I am well placed to comment. In addition, the way the character of an essentially rural people- sniggered at for their ‘goatherd mentality’ by city-dwelling Pakistanis- has changed in the UK is fascinating.

Any suggestions on issues that should be covered would be most welcome.