Some successful sniping apart- the one about Margaret’s shoulder was particularly vicious- the Tory party is unlikely to win the general election in May this year. Nothing is certain in politics, but something drastic would have to happen to overturn Labour’s mammoth majority. As an ardent opponent of the Iraq war, a Labour defeat would be hugely gratifying, but reality cannot be ignored. So what is likely to happen?
The most likely scenario is a halved majority for Labour. That would still give it a majority of over 80. The Conservatives are likely to make gains, but their total seats will remain sub 200, psychologically an important figure if they are to show signs of significant recovery. The Liberal Democrats would have done well if they win 70 seats.
Labour’s still significant majority will mask the fact that most voters, possibly more than 60%, would not have voted for it. Such are the peculiarities of the first past the post system, though the moral legitimacy of a mandate based on a minority of the popular vote can be reasonably impugned.
A reduced majority may well be good for the Labour party, particularly if the losses fall on that breed of New Labour MPs often referred to as Tony’s cronies. These are MPs who are in it to pursue their own careers and have few convictions or a concept of the public good. Their docility has enabled Blair to get away with much. They have failed in their duty as MPs. Let us hope they fail at the general election.
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