Election 2005 and the Muslim vote

Now that the date of the election has been confirmed, the atmosphere for the next 4 weeks will be febrile as political parties jostle for our votes. As this is the first post 9/11 and Iraq war election, the voting behaviour of the Muslim community will be important. Given the high concentration of Muslims in particular inner-city areas, the issue of the Muslim vote is more than of just academic interest- it could cause some major upsets for Labour.

Blair’s unconditional alignment with the neo-conservatives in Washington has antagonised the Muslim community. About that there is no doubt- Muslims have made their views abundantly clear through local elections. We now know that in the 2004 local elections, the strong surge towards Labour in two Muslim majority wards in Birmingham was the result of widespread fraud on the part of Labour.

The main beneficiaries of Muslim disillusionment with Labour have been the anti-war Liberal Democrats and not the Tories, the natural party of war. Given a straight fight between the 3 main parties, there is no doubt that the Liberal Democrats would unseat Labour in several seats. This, however, is unlikely to occur. ‘Respect’, staunchly anti-Labour and anti-war, is also likely to pick up a significant amount of votes that would otherwise have gone to the Liberals. Consequently the anti-Labour vote would be divided and Labour will win, albeit with a much reduced majority and with less moral authority.

Muslim anger with Labour, and dislike of Blair, cannot be doubted. But in the absence of tactical voting, this is unlikely to translate into defeat in constituencies with Muslim populations. My fear is that most people are insufficiently astute to appreciate this and will be taken by the rhetoric of ‘Respect’. It is ironic, but the anti-Labour ‘Respect’ may be the reason why Labour MPs are re-elected in constituencies with large Muslim populations. Such are the dynamics of the first-past-the-post system.

In an ideal situation, we would vote for what we believe in. The victorious party, seeing that a large percentage of the popular vote went to parties with a particular view, would modify its policies to take account of some of the concerns. When the Greens began to capture large chunks of the popular vote, the mainstream parties became more interested in the environment. Alas, in this election the Labour party is unlikely to adjust its alignment with the war mongers in Washington so long as we vote for any anti-war party. On the contrary, Labour will describe any victory helped by a divided opposition as a vindication of its policies. Tactical voting, aiming to defeat Labour MPs, is the only option. My vote, for what it’s worth, will be for the Liberal Democrats.