The Labour victory in the Hartlepool bye-election would be better known for the massively depleted majority in an ultra-safe seat, were it not for the dismal performance of the Tories. It would be unwise to talk of a major structural shift in British politics, but intellectually at least, the Tories look redundant. Labour now occupies the space formerly occupied by the Tories. New Labour believes in the primacy of the market. In international affairs it has clearly aligned itself with the war mongering neo-cons who rule the US. Blair's fortune is now linked to that of Bush.
While Labour has moved rightwards, the Liberal Democrats have shifted leftwards. They don't shy away from strong opinions about taxation or the role of the state. They were clearly opposed to the war in Iraq, while the Tories acquisced. Blair's credibility has plummeted, yet the Tories have not benefitted. They could have been more vociferous againt the war. They have blown their chance of winning the next election. It is not wise to predict anything in politics, but I will stick my neck and say: the Tories will not win the next general election.
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